According to the secret documents, South Korea’s top official in charge of inter-Korean relations predicts Kim will die within five years due to his poor health. A top Chinese official revealed that Kim’s decision-making power has weakened since having a stroke in 2008 and this led him to hurriedly decide on his youngest son as successor.
Under a diplomatic cable dated July 24, 2009, South Korean Unification Minister Hyun In-taek said, “Kim Jong-il is unlikely to live beyond 2015.” He made the comments in a meeting with U.S. Assistant Secretary of State Kurt Campbell on Kim Jong-il’s health and succession concerns.
“The current succession preparations for Kim Jong-un were ‘rushed’ and he anticipated additional ‘fireworks’ (either a third nuclear test or missile launches) at the end of the current 150-day campaign,” Minister Hyun said.
Another cable dated Jan.11, 2010 reveals analysis on China-North Korea trade and Kim Jong-il’s decision-making power.
The analysis report said, “Kim Jong-il has recently reversed decisions and struggled to implement policies, showing increasing indecisiveness.” “Officials also chart their own course as different factions competing for Kim’s attention, making it difficult for Kim to set a firm, clear direction.”
Another diplomatic cable dated Oct. 26, 2009 describes a conversation between top officials from the United States and China over North Korean leader Kim’s drinking habit.
According to the conversation between U.S. Deputy Secretary James Steinberg and Chinese State Councilor Dai Bingguo, Kim Jong-il still drinks despite having had a stroke.
“Kim Jong-il had a reputation among the Chinese for being ‘quite a good drinker,’” Dai said. The Chinese official had asked Kim if he still drank alcohol. Kim said yes.
North Korea’s collapse and succession process
A cable dated Feb. 22, 2010 describes a conversation between South Korea’s then Vice Foreign Minister Chun Yung-woo and U.S. ambassador to Korea Kathleen Stephens about China’s position on North Korea.
Over an official lunch, Chun, who is now President Lee Myung-bak’s top foreign policy and security adviser, said, “China would not be able to stop North Korea’s collapse following the death of Kim Jong-il.”